Title: Philippine economy expected to grow over 6% in 2025-2026

Recto conveyed confidence that the Philippines' economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 exceeded the 5.2 percent growth achieved in the third quarter, potentially driving the annual growth rate to near or above 6 percent.

Recto said there’s also a chance that economic growth will hit 6 percent in the fourth quarter.

Manila Skyline | PHOTO: JMS

MANILA, Philippines – The Philippine economy is on track for robust growth, with Department of Finance (DOF) Secretary Ralph Recto and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting an acceleration in 2025 and 2026.

Recto expressed optimism that the country’s economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 surpassed the 5.2 percent growth recorded in the third quarter, bringing the full-year growth close to or above 6 percent.

“I think it [fourth quarter growth] will be faster than Q3 (third quarter). Q3 was 5.2 [percent]. I think it will definitely be faster than Q3,” Recto told reporters during a recent briefing.

READ: Recto: Gov’t might have missed 2024 growth target

Recto said there’s also a chance that economic growth will hit 6 percent in the fourth quarter.

“Possible. If it hits 6 [percent] in the fourth quarter, I’ll be happy with that,” he said.

The Philippine economy grew by 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2024, bringing the year-to-date gross domestic product (GDP) expansion to 5.8 percent.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release official fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 economic growth data on January 30. 

For 2025, Recto is confident that the economy will expand by over 6 percent, with key drivers including strong domestic consumption and investments.

Drivers of growth

The IMF stated that from 2025 to 2026, economic growth will be driven by domestic demand, particularly consumption and investment. 

In its recently released World Economic Outlook, the IMF maintained its growth forecasts at 6.1 percent for 2025 and 6.3 percent for 2026. 

“Consumption growth will be bolstered by lower food prices and a gradual easing of monetary policy,” an IMF spokesperson said in an email. 

The spokesperson added that investment growth is also expected to rise, supported by sustained public investment efforts, gradually decreasing borrowing costs, and an acceleration in the implementation of public-private partnership projects and foreign direct investment (FDI), following recent legislative reforms.

Meanwhile, the IMF projects headline inflation to settle at 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026, both well within the government’s 2 to 4 percent.

Source via INQUIRER