COVID-19 in 2025: ‘A Constant Threat, but a Manageable One’

As we enter the sixth year of life with COVID-19, public health experts reflect on how the virus has evolved and how we can apply lessons learned to mitigate future health crises. Faculty members from SPH, including Davidson Hamer, Laura White, Jonathan Levy, Patricia Fabian, Brooke Nichols, Matt Motta, Timothy Callaghan, and Jennifer Weuve, discuss the ongoing impact of COVID-19 and strategies for managing its presence in society.

The Current State of COVID-19

Five years after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, the virus has largely receded from public conversation and daily routines. Many references to COVID-19 are now made in the past tense, but its impact continues to shape society in profound ways.

By certain metrics, the darkest days of the pandemic are behind us. Daily reported deaths in the U.S. have significantly decreased from the peak of 5,000+ per day in 2021 to approximately 280 per day as of February 2025. Vaccines and antiviral treatments are widely available, and social distancing measures are now a distant memory.

However, millions of lives have been permanently affected by the loss of loved ones, long-term health complications, economic strain, and mental health challenges. Additionally, excess death estimates suggest that many COVID-19-related deaths continue to go unreported. While most experts agree that COVID-19 is now endemic—circulating at more predictable levels similar to other common viruses—it remains a serious public health concern.

The Challenge Ahead

“The virus is still capable of evolving, and it’s going to remain a constant threat. But because so many people have had at least one infection and/or multiple vaccine doses, the severity of infections will generally remain relatively low,” says Davidson Hamer, professor of global health and medicine at SPH and BU’s Center on Emerging Infectious Diseases (CEID).

“That said, people with advanced age, underlying medical conditions, or weakened immune systems are still at risk of severe illness and death.”

Beyond individual risks, the pandemic exposed deep-rooted societal inequities related to race, employment, income, gender, age, and geography. Since 2020, public health researchers have emphasized the need for greater investment in public health infrastructure, clearer health communication, and rebuilding trust in science, which has been fractured by political polarization.

As the world continues to navigate COVID-19—along with emerging threats such as avian flu, influenza, and resurging diseases like measles—the question remains: how can we use past data to drive meaningful change?

Addressing Disparities in Public Health

One critical priority is addressing the disparities that have led to worse health outcomes among marginalized populations, says Jonathan Levy, chair and professor of environmental health.

“The same populations had higher exposure risks at work, higher transmission risks at home, worse access to healthcare, and lower vaccination rates at key points in the pandemic,” Levy explains. “Unfortunately, we haven’t done enough to address these disparities.”

This issue is becoming even more pressing amid policy shifts. On his first day back in office, President Trump signed an executive order terminating all federally funded diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. On March 7, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) complied by rescinding millions of dollars in research grants related to DEI and transgender health, despite court orders attempting to block such restrictions.

Levy warns that these actions could undermine efforts to understand and address health disparities. “It is the job of public health to explain who is at highest risk and to propose strategies to reduce that risk,” he says. “When empirical evidence shows that health risks are disproportionately distributed by race, ethnicity, gender, or other markers of identity, we need to be able to present that data clearly.”

In 2022, Levy and a team of researchers conducted an analysis for the Boston Globe that examined racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality rates in Massachusetts. Initially, Black and Latino individuals faced significantly higher death rates, but after the Omicron wave, White individuals had higher mortality rates. “We need to be able to tell these stories and use them to shape smart interventions,” Levy emphasizes.

Life in 2025: The Accuracy of Pandemic Predictions

In 2020, as the world grappled with the COVID-19 crisis, a diverse group of 915 experts—including tech innovators, policymakers, and researchers—were asked to predict what life might look like in 2025. Their insights, compiled by the Pew Research Center and Elon University's Imagining the Internet Center, painted a mixed picture of optimism and caution.

One recurring theme was the rise of a “tele-everything” future, where digital connections would increasingly shape work, education, healthcare, and social interactions.

Now that we are in 2025, we can reflect on these predictions and assess how closely they align with our current reality. While some expectations have materialized—such as remote work remaining a fixture in many industries—others, like equitable access to digital healthcare, still require significant progress.

As we move forward, public health experts emphasize the importance of using lessons from COVID-19 to prepare for future pandemics and public health challenges. The key lies in sustained investment, clear communication, and addressing systemic inequalities that continue to put vulnerable populations at risk.